Sophie Moench February 27, 2020 Mutual Fund
Dismiss recent results Past performance is no indicator of future results. No truer words could ever be spoken and they are included in every mutual fund advertisement. But it is extremely difficult to ignore these numbers which the fund companies conveniently place in big bold letters - immediately above the fine print warning us. Nothing is more attractive than a fund with a great record, especially given the dismal performance in the market.
These two lists illustrate just nine (9) possible groups. The next step is to either use software that enables you to find the best future performers within each group or perform fundamental analysis, studying the track record of the manager and his longevity managing the fund as one basic fundamental method. Technical analysis of the funds performance as compared to the markets as a whole is the method I use. You also need rules for when to sell and when to hold, because failing to sell when you should is what creates losses in your pocketbook.
Mutual funds investors are always confronted with the decision about investing in managed funds or using an index fund. There are plenty of people who believe one is better than the other, so we will review the advantages and disadvantages of each and I will provide my own suggestion to help you out.
Actively Managed Funds: All mutual funds that are actively managed by a fund company in an effort to add value to shareholders returns fall into this category. In theory, an experienced portfolio manager can surpass the returns of an index fund by making well-timed and disciplined trades. The unfortunate reality is that the vast majority of fund managers do NOT beat their index. But the good news is that the top 20% of these funds can and do on a regular basis. We will try to focus on this group of quality managers.
In his book "The Trouble With Mutual Funds," Richard Rutner shares that "No one denies that the average mutual fund returns 2% less per year than the stock market returns in general. Yet the mutual fund industry spends billions of shareholder dollars to promote its money managers as experts who can manage investor`s dollars with skill. The vast majority of mutual funds (94% according to a recent five-year survey by Lipper Analytical Services) have underperformed the stock market as a whole."
Once you have discovered which index your fund tends to follow it will be obvious on the charts then pick one or two funds that follow the $RUT, one or two that follow the $MID, one or two that follow the EFA foreign funds are usually easy to spot by their names , and finally one or two that follow the NASDAQ.