Heike Moeller February 24, 2020 Mutual Fund
While both managed and index funds can yield nice long-term returns over time, I have found that if you can select the best managers in their field and allocate your assets to these top 20 percent of the fund world, you can get better returns from your fund investments. But if you are not sure whether your funds are in the top group, find out. and if they are not, you might be better off with an index fund.
Make sure the management team has not changed by the way. You do not want to pay for fabulous past results only to find out there is a new portfolio manager in town running your mutual fund. Watch out for the fad funds by the way. By the time an entire mutual fund sector is hot, and ripping up the charts with performance, it is too late 90% of the time, for you to be an investor. You do not want start becoming an investor in gold as it passes $1200 per ounce. That is the time you want to be thinking about exiting, not entering.
If any of this scares you, rethink your investments. The asset allocation model where they show you a pie chart with so many stocks, so many bonds and maybe 3% cash is a failure. This was designed for institutions with 100% investible assets, not for individuals with lifestyle needs and expenses. You will never see any real estate in that pie chart, yet for most Americans, their home is worth more than their other investments
Mutual funds are no doubt the best way to invest. Just study the market and understand your options. If you do your research, you will be able to pick a fund that will benefit you in the long run. Investigate the company and know what you are getting into. Do not leap before you look first. You may end up getting less than what you bargained for it you do.
Technical analysis removes all emotional and subjective aspects of your decisions. This method can be based on many means of analyzing a funds price performance. You can do it with a spreadsheet if you have lots of time, or with a software program. Programs will tell you what fund is the most likely best performer and also indicate if your current holdings are continuing to grow.
Unless you have a crystal ball or a time machine, accurately predicting the future gyrations of a stock or the markets is nearly impossible. It may be slightly easier to follow the trend and reallocate your assets close to bottoms and close to tops, but if you are an average investor, you do not have the time, temperament or training to do it well. Most financial and investment advisers do not either.