Heike Moeller February 24, 2020 Mutual Fund
As you can see, there are many reasons why market timing of mutual funds can be a difficult task. It is better to use an asset allocation model and adjust your allocations as needed. While most stock investors that trade or time the market usually lose money, most fund investors tend to make money over time. So select quality funds that meet your objectives, adjust your allocations and let the markets work to your advantage.
Actively Managed Funds: All mutual funds that are actively managed by a fund company in an effort to add value to shareholders returns fall into this category. In theory, an experienced portfolio manager can surpass the returns of an index fund by making well-timed and disciplined trades. The unfortunate reality is that the vast majority of fund managers do NOT beat their index. But the good news is that the top 20% of these funds can and do on a regular basis. We will try to focus on this group of quality managers.
Lipper Inc ranks its funds based on prior performance. The worse the performance the higher the rating to indicate a larger risk, the lower the rating the better the performance has been. The total return, preservation, consistency of the return, its tax efficiency and the expense are all factored in to determine the funds actual risks. This method should be more accurate in determining the actual risk and profit factor involved in the mutual fund.
Technical analysis removes all emotional and subjective aspects of your decisions. This method can be based on many means of analyzing a funds price performance. You can do it with a spreadsheet if you have lots of time, or with a software program. Programs will tell you what fund is the most likely best performer and also indicate if your current holdings are continuing to grow.
But you have to remember those special mutual fund factors: minimum holding requirements once you buy a fund; short-term penalty fees if you sell too soon, and a possible frozen account if you re-buy a recently sold fund or funds too soon within 12 months. In other words either you or your software must track or base your selling and buying decisions upon how long you have owned a fund with a re-buy restriction on recently sold funds so you do not get caught in the round-trip trap.
Make sure the management team has not changed by the way. You do not want to pay for fabulous past results only to find out there is a new portfolio manager in town running your mutual fund. Watch out for the fad funds by the way. By the time an entire mutual fund sector is hot, and ripping up the charts with performance, it is too late 90% of the time, for you to be an investor. You do not want start becoming an investor in gold as it passes $1200 per ounce. That is the time you want to be thinking about exiting, not entering.