Birgit Kuester February 25, 2020 Mutual Fund
Lipper Inc ranks its funds based on prior performance. The worse the performance the higher the rating to indicate a larger risk, the lower the rating the better the performance has been. The total return, preservation, consistency of the return, its tax efficiency and the expense are all factored in to determine the funds actual risks. This method should be more accurate in determining the actual risk and profit factor involved in the mutual fund.
As you can see, there are many reasons why market timing of mutual funds can be a difficult task. It is better to use an asset allocation model and adjust your allocations as needed. While most stock investors that trade or time the market usually lose money, most fund investors tend to make money over time. So select quality funds that meet your objectives, adjust your allocations and let the markets work to your advantage.
Taxes are often overlooked and can substantially reduce your after-tax gain unless investing within a tax-deferred, retirement account. Avoid funds with large distributions (capital gain payments) by searching for funds with low turnover. Since buying and selling stock incurs transaction costs, lower turnover translates to lower expenses and lower capital gains taxes. Fund managers who seek to boost returns through repeatedly buying and selling securities are no friend of yours.
With over 6,000 mutual funds available, it may be tempting to pick funds from a popular star or index rating system. Savvy investors, however, balance multiple factors in their selection process. Ratings represent only the historical performance of funds and cannot predict the future. Performance consistency, management skill, and expense limitations are among the many factors that influence a funds prospects. Each must be carefully evaluated to improve your chances of finding a fund to outperform the market.
Technical analysis removes all emotional and subjective aspects of your decisions. This method can be based on many means of analyzing a funds price performance. You can do it with a spreadsheet if you have lots of time, or with a software program. Programs will tell you what fund is the most likely best performer and also indicate if your current holdings are continuing to grow.
All the matters are the long term trends, and in the long run stable value funds barely keep up with inflation. Unless you are talking about a lifestyle fund, or a couple of very broad based index funds, you are probably not going to get the diversification you need from such a small number of funds. Generally speaking, if you are given the choice between two funds that cover the same asset class, you probably want to pick the one with the lower cost. Select funds that cover different asset classes.