Heike Moeller February 24, 2020 Mutual Fund
Spreadsheets & Formulas I have known plenty of investors who have invested extensive time, money and research into choosing their mutual funds. They have devised their own systems, using complex formulas and spreadsheets to allow them to make the right choice about their mutual funds. Ultimately however, this begs the question: If you have to do all this research, why are you buying mutual funds in the first place? For the amount of time you are spending on your decisions, you could buy individual stocks and not pay a money manager a fee.
Because these funds are not actively managed, you cannot weed out under-performing securities from the overall index. This can and does have a detrimental effect on your returns. If market conditions warrant action, index funds usually will not be altered unless it happens to coincide with their regular re-balancing schedule.
The trading strategy for each group will be different. One group may only require a "minimum hold" of 30 days while another may require 90 days. A `dividend` group may result in very infrequent trades while a `sector` group may trade more frequently because of changes in the economy and offer opportunities for large gains, large profits. You may, as I have, have two or even three different strategies for the same group of funds, one based on more frequent trading then the other.
Unfortunately, history seems to suggest not. Despite the fact that tens of thousands of individuals make their professions trying to beat the markets, almost none of them do so on a consistent basis. Many will have good runs, but ultimately no one seems to have a proven formula for beating the markets. Usually the hero of a bull market turns into the villain once the market turns on him or her.
Mutual Fund returns are meeting the reasonable expectations of investors. In the greatest of bull markets, funds of all sizes seriously under performed the stock market. The inability of 85% of all fund managers even to match the performance of the market overall is the result of high fees (see above) short-term investment horizons and substantial transactions and tax costs.
Watch the indexes, and watch your funds if they have symbols. Fixed Funds Fixed Funds, sometimes called Guaranteed Funds, are known for steady, predictable growth in the long term. They carry Guaranteed Interest Contracts underwritten by insurance companies, and because of that fact are commonly considered very low risk funds. This includes the additional protection of the funds from garnishment or attachment by creditors or assigned to anyone else, except in the case of domestic relations court cases dealing with divorce decree or child support orders QDROs; i e , qualified domestic relations orders .
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